Development of a sub-continental drought prediction method
Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Pretoria
Honorary Fellow, South African Institution of Civil Engineering
Member, United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on
Natural Disasters, 1994 - 2000
Without water, no human, animal or plant life would be possible. From this it follows that severe droughts are the greatest threat to life on this planet.
South Africa’s surface water resources are rapidly approaching depletion. It is essential that practitioners in these fields should have an advanced knowledge of multi-site, multi-year, periodical hydrological statistics and practical experience in these fields. Details are provided in the author's substantial handbook on analytical methods for water resource development and management.
The drought prediction method described in this graphical report is a world first. It is based on the results of decades of studies by many scientists and engineers during more than the past 100 years.
Frequent reference will be made to the illustration on the title page of this report. The vertical axis is the recorded flows into the storage dams expressed as percentages of the record mean values. The horizontal axis is a new timescale of period years, in this case starting in 1995. The current drought period extends from year 14 (2009) to year 20 (2015). Details are provided in my handbook.
There is no possibility whatsoever that climate change theory can be applied to the issues detailed in this report.
Key words. Droughts, periodicity, predictability, solar linkage, climate change.
See also this paper published in 2008 discussing the likelihood of a global drought in 2009-2016.